



Following the election of Scott Brown (R-MA) to the U.S. Senate, the future of Health Care Reform is entirely uncertain. Why did this one election change everything?
First, because it robbed the Democrats of their veto-proof 60 vote majority in the Senate. Even more importantly, because it sends an unequivocal message that American voters, even in dark blue Massachusetts, are unhappy with the course of government in general and with the current Health Care Reform bills in particular. But most importantly, because it demonstrates that no Democrat-held seat in either the Senate or the House is completely safe. I mean, if Ted Kennedy’s seat isn’t safe, whose is?
But now, what to do? The Democrats have wisely decided NOT to try to ram legislation through Congress before Scott Brown is seated. However, they still have a number of parliamentary procedures at their disposal that might allow them to avoid another vote in the Senate that would require 60 votes. The problem with these options is that some Democrats are opposed to them on principle while others worry that using them will anger voters even more.
A second option involves re-writing the bill(s) in an effort to find enough common ground with Republicans to get back to a 60 vote majority in the Senate. However, it will be MUCH harder to find bipartisan consensus now that there is blood in the water than it would have been 10 months ago when the process began. Republicans are calling on Congress to “go back to the drawing boards”. That might have worked a few months ago but it is questionable whether there is enough time…and energy…to do this before the 2010 election season begins in earnest.
According to a third set of options, the bill(s) would be broken down into smaller, less adventuresome bills that would enact fairly narrow, specific reforms that are generally popular and could get majority support in the House and 60 votes in the Senate. This is probably the best idea out there right now.
But all of these options ignore a basic reality: Speaker Pelosi is down to just a one vote pro-reform majority in the House and 11 conservative Democrats have indicated that they may switch their votes to “no” if the final bill does not contain a total ban on abortion funding, a provision totally unacceptable to liberals. Only one of these “Blue Dogs” needs to make good on that threat to kill the bill in the House. And it will now be easier than ever for one or more of them to change sides saying, “I am listening to the will of the people so clearly expressed in Massachusetts.” The election of Scott Brown has created political cover for members of Congress who would like to forget this entire nightmare and get back to the business of government.
So what’s next? Literally, nobody knows. As we’ve said before in this blog: Stay tuned!










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